Bum Theory Update

Dear fellow bums,  

Just wanted to check in and let everyone know what we have been up to…

Since accurately predicting the 2013 World Series Champs we at BumTheory have been actively working to publish our first book in hopes to further spread the Gospel of Bum to the baseball masses..

It’s been a quick turnaround since last season and for the past month or so we have been catching up on the MLB off-season.

We expect to be fully-operational again by mid-March and we are super excited to share some new insights that we have developed.

Thanks again for all of the support and we look forward to another wild ride this season.

Viva la Bum!

Coming Soon: Bum of the Year Awards

We will wrap up the 2013 season with the end of the season Bummies. As you have followed us all season these Bummies will be like the end of the month awards, however we will use the full season worth of stats and bum appeal. Good luck to all you Bums, as I know you all look forward to see who grabs, the Bum of the Year!

When we started rolling nobody ever stopped the train
David “Big Papi” Ortiz

The Story has been written!

The Red Sox are the 2013 World Series champions. Let that sink in.

The story has be written…..the dream is now real.

"Like an island of misfit toys"

-Romeo Muller & Robert May

One. More. Win. Let’s go Boston!

The Clincher

The Red Sox have a chance tonight to clinch their first World Series at home since 1918. This was also the exact date that Bum Theory predicted the Red Sox to win it all.

It has the makings of a magical night…

A Defining Moment

Did that just happen? That was exactly what was on everyone’s mind last night at the end of the Red Sox-Cardinals game. In a thrilling game 3 did the game just end on an obstruction call? After Dustin Pedroia made tremendous play to save the game then Jarrod Saltalamacchia made a bone headed throw to 3rd, did the game just end on an obstruction call? If Allen Craig scores after the bad throw by Salty then everyone would have just gone on and blamed him (their is still blame that must go his way). However, it did not happen that way. After the bad throw in which Will Middlebrooks tried to block, Allen Craig tries to get up however instead of heading right home Craig looks for the ball taking a jab step towards second base and land on Middlebrooks. Craig, who is unaware that an obstruction call is being made, heads home and in thrown out at the plate. 

So we have had a few hours now to dissect it all. The umps have been cheered on for making a great call and not even having to use replay. However, how can one man (who by picture never even saw the play develop) decide a game. Yes, they had all the answers after the game of the exact rule. How if this happen or this happened. Did Joyce really think of all of that in less than a second? Joyce made a call so quick that non of that could have been thought of, he made a clear guess that he would be right. Joyce decided a game with out clearly knowing if Middlebrooks was inside the baseline and if Craig made a full attempt to go home after falling on Middlebrooks. 

Instead of applauding the umps like everyone has been, you would think one person would man up and ask the tough question. Someone needs to call out this umpiring crew for deciding a World Series game. Someone needs to rip Jim Joyce for making a call so quick with out clearly watching the play or properly thinking about the call. 

With all of that said, it’s now time for the Red Sox to takeover this series. Grab the bull by the horns, and show the world once and for all how resilient this team is. It’s is now time for the bums to show, once and for all it time for the Red Sox to win the next 3 games and send a message. Like Dustin Pedroia said post game “this game will not define this team.” Even though it now define this umpiring crew for the rest of their careers.

Bum Theory Rich

So isn’t Jim Joyce (the man who decided the game) actually be watching the play. Oh yeah you get paid to do this!!! Spread this pic and remember this…the Bums will overcome this like they have all season.

So isn’t Jim Joyce (the man who decided the game) actually be watching the play. Oh yeah you get paid to do this!!! Spread this pic and remember this…the Bums will overcome this like they have all season.

10 Bold Bum Predictions of 2013: Revisited

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On April 8, 2013 the Bum Theory team published our 10 predictions for the 2013 MLB season.  On the eve of the World Series we decided it would be a good time to revisit some of our predictions; here we go:

1. Dodgers and Giants get all the headline…Diamondbacks win the N.L. West.

Ok, so we may have been a little ambitious about the D-Backs this season.  They stuck around for the better part of the season but they just didn’t have the guns to withstand the Dodgers incredible 50+ game run.  On the other hand, the 2012 World Series Champion Giants stunk all season and even though the Dodgers won some games neither of these teams will be hoisting a Championship banner at the beginning of next season.

2. Rangers lose Hamilton to Angels…Angels lose A.L. West to the Rangers.

We were about 75% correct on this prediction.  The Rangers didn’t end up winning the west but they came pretty darn close (91 wins) and still managed to make the playoffs.  The same can’t be said for the Angels who decided it was more important to win in the off-season rather than the regular season. (78 wins) Now, not only do the Angels have a sub .500 team but they also have Josh Hamilton for the for the next 6 seasons.

3. In 2013: Jeremy Guthrie will become the R.A. Dickey of 2012, while R.A. Dickey becomes the Jeremy Guthrie of 2012.

Who didn’t see this one coming?  Coming back home to the American League Dickey didn’t meet expectations, pitching 200+ innings of below-average ball. (4.58 FIP/2.0 WAR)   R.A. Dickey was just another “flashy” off-season pick-up for the Blue Jays and just like so many of their other additions he was a flat-out failure for the Jays this off-season.  Besides us, everyone and their mother picked the Blue Jays to win the A.L. East and everyone was wrong…including Vegas.  The forgotten man, Jeremy Guthrie on the other hand wasn’t “special” this season but still managed a superior 4.04 ERA in 200+ innings for the Royals.  

4. None of the 3 off-season winners, The Dodgers, Angels, and Blue Jays will make the playoffs.

2/3.  We were wrong about the Dodgers.  However, in reality the Dodgers accomplished just as much as the Tigers did, nothing.  No one is happy unless you win the World Series.  On the other hand, we also correctly predicted that two out of the three clear World Series favorites did not even make the playoffs.

5. After dumping most of their 2012 roster, the Marlins this season will win more games than they did last season.

We were wrong, the Marlins won 7 less games in 2013 (62) than they did in 2012 (69) after “losing” the likes of Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonafacio, Mark Buehrle and Anibal Sanchez.  7 less games than they did in 2012, who unlike the 2013 Marlins were predicted to be an N.L. playoff team.  While the 2013 Marlins weren’t a success, neither were the much more-heralded 2012 club, and the 2014 Marlins led by Jose Fernandez are in a much better position because they were able to clean house.

6. After being pronounced dead by the sports media heading into the ‘13 season, the Red Sox and Yanks finish 1, 2 in the A.L. East.

We’re pretty proud of this one as most predictions had the Sox and Yanks finishing 4th and 5th.  And for the cherry on top; the team that most people picked to win the division, the Blue Jays, finished last.  

7. Like Allen Craig of 2012, the Rangers center fielders, consisting of Leonys Martin, Craig Gentry, and others will match the production of the $133 Million Dollar man Josh Hamilton.

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(Sorry for the size of the image)

Martin and Gentry combined for roughly 150 more plate appearances than Hamilton but this debate is close enough to call.  According to fangraphs Gentry (3.4 WAR) and Martin (2.7 WAR) individually (and collectively) were more valuable than Josh Hamilton. (1.9 WAR)

8. The much talked about Mike Trout, and Bryce Harper will have more M.V.P. votes, but less post-season wins than their less-heralded class-mate Will Middlebrooks.

Post-season wins:

Mike Trout & Bryce Harper: 0

Will Middlebrooks: 7

9. Alex Cobb, making 50 times (50x) less money than Zack Greinke will have a lower ERA and more WINS.

We were definitely wrong on this one but it ended up being pretty close.  Zack Greinke finished the season with a superior 2.63 ERA and 14 wins while Alex Cobb, who pitched in 30 less innings finished with a 2.76 ERA and 11 wins.  

10. On October 30th, 2013, the Boston Red Sox defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks in the World Series.  Shane Victorino will take home World Series M.V.P. honors.

TBD but our prediction means Red Sox in 6.

Enjoy the series!

Max Verlander v. John Buchholz

If you were to ask the general baseball public, who has the best 1-2 in terms of starting pitching?, its safe to assume most people would say the Detroit Tigers.  

With blossoming star Max Scherzer and veteran ace Justin Verlander slated to toe the rubber in game 6 and a possible game 7 of the ALCS, how do the Red Sox even have a chance?

His name is John Buchholz.

We thought it would be interesting to combine the statistics of John Lackey and Clay Buchholz (John Buchholz) and compare them to the combined statistics of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, or Max Verlander.

2013 Pitching Stats: (fangraphs)

Max Verlander:

IP: 432 Avg.: .224 WHIP: 1.14 ERA: 3.18 xFIP: 3.42

John Buchholz:

IP: 297.2 Avg.: .222 WHIP: 1.09 ERA: 2.63 xFIP: 3.45

I chose to leave out value statistics, such as W.A.R. simply because they put a large importance on innings pitched and in that fight, John Buchholz wouldn’t have a chance.  The only real edge that Max Verlander has in this bout is innings pitched, but we don’t really care about how much value either pitcher brought to their team during the season, we only care about the next two games.  If anything I would argue that I would rather have the “fresher” pitcher (John Buchholz) because we are in a do-or-die situation and we are no longer concerned with conserving our pitchers. (bullpen and starters)

Serious sport is war minus the shooting

George Orwell

Baseball is war people.  Every series, every game, every innings, every pitch; they fight.  After fighting for the past 5 1/2 months, the Red Sox have earned themselves a “win and get in” game 6.

The War of the American League (2013) may be decided tonight!

I rubbed my bat on Jonny’s (Gomes) beard before that at-bat.
Mike Napoli on his approach to his 7th inning at-bat.

The Bummies: September/October Edition

A.L. Bum of the Month:

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland Athletics.

AB: 89 HR: 5 RBI: 16 AVG.: .337 OPS: 1.049 W.A.R.: 1.9

N.L. Bum of the Month:

Matt Carpenter, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals.

AB: 109 HR: 1 R: 26 RBI: 15 AVG.: .349 OPS: .964 W.A.R.: 1.5

A.L. Cy Bum:

Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Cleveland Indians.

IP: 41.1 K: 51 ERA: 1.09 WHIP: 1.02 HR: 0 W.A.R.: 2.2

N.L. Bum of the Month:

Marco Estrada, SP, Milwaukee Brewers.

IP: 27.2 K: 27 ERA: 1.63 WHIP: .611 HR: 1 W.A.R.: 1.0

Bum Rookie:

A.J. Pollock, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks.

AB: 71 HR: 1 R: 10 SB: 3 AVG.: .352 OBP: .432 OPS: .897 W.A.R.: .9

Bum Moment:

For the first time since 1992, The Pittsburgh Pirates, led by bums Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, Marlon Byrd, Mark Melancon, and Pedro Alvarez made it into the MLB post-season.

October 13, 2013: Always Believe

We watch sports for many reasons. We watch it to past time. We watch it as a family event. We watch it for fantasy sports or when betting on sports. We watch it as passionate fans that want “our” team to win the big game. Sometimes in society sports are looked at as being “blown out of proportion”, that we take them to seriously, that we should not devote this much time to a “game” when there are bigger problems in this world. While that is undoubtedly true, sometimes the media makes a bigger deal out of a Sunday afternoon game in Dallas then normal day hunger problem, do not blame the sport. In a world today that has so many bad things in sports can be so good. It is an escape for some people, it gives people something to rally around, and it does so many other things for people. One of those things, and maybe the greatest of them all it gives people hope. 

Hope is something we are all trying to have nowadays. It a world with less jobs, more debt, government shutdowns, wars, terrorism, and so many things to name we need hope more now than ever.  Somewhere along the lines many people have lost hope and have given up. On October 13, 2013 Boston sports have brought back the hope. 

First off I am not saying by winning two games yesterday that they solved any major problems in this world. They did not cure cancer, stop hunger or stop any major wars. However, they did bring back hope. They showed against all odds that if we truly work together as a team anything is truly possible. First the New England Patriots led by there future Hall of Fame quarterback found a way to make a dramatic comeback after sustaining multiple injuries to key players throughout the game. Even after being counted out, not just once, but twice in the final 3 minutes of the game they found a way to drive the field versus  a good defense with a list of nobody receivers for the game winning touchdown. So many people have written this team off as simply not good enough, but as they have shown all season and especially yesterday it is not the individuals its the team. This team is made of talented, motivated, and players are truly never give up that my friends is a very dangerous combination. 

So as the cheers in Foxboro could be heard all the way back in Boston the Sox started game 2 of their ALCS series versus the Tigers. Through 7 innings it looked very similar to their game 1 loss. As they had set a record with 31 strikeouts in back to back games. This time however, they did not trail 1-0 they trailed 5-0 and it looked like a quick 2-0 deficit in the series. If you counted this team out though you clearly did not watch them this season. This team has proven over and over again that they are the king of the comebacks. This is a team that has taken the motto “Boston Strong” and made it theirs. So as everyone counted the Sox out last night (just as they had with the Patriots earlier in the day) the Sox found a way to get back into it. It started out with just one run as they cut the lead to 5-1. As they trailed 5-1 in the 8th inning and had the bases loaded for Red Sox clutch legend David Ortiz, all of Fenway rose to it feet. As they had seen earlier in the day the Patriots comeback they started to believe that the Sox could do it to. The Patriots had given the fans hope that, “Yes, we can do this.” With one swing of the bat David Ortiz did just that, we hit a game tying grand slam that sent Fenway into pandaemonium. One inning later Jonny Gomes lead off with an infield single and after a throwing error took 2nd base. A wild pitch later Gomes was at 3rd and waiting for Salty to drive him in and celebrate. Salty did just that and the celebration was on.

People could not believe in the matter of 8 hours they had seen two of the most improbable comebacks ever. The odds that both comebacks would occur was just .6%. Two teams with great heart and truly a never give up mentality. Two teams that brought back the word hope. Two teams that showed why sports are so great. 

In life and sports we lose a lot, it seems we lose sometimes more than we win. However when we are down we want one thing, we want hope.

Thank you Boston sports yesterday for bringing us a little hope! It was truly unbelievable! 

One of the greatest days in Boston sports history. Led by two of its greatest legends. The Sox and Patriots showed again why Boston is, Boston Strong!

One of the greatest days in Boston sports history. Led by two of its greatest legends. The Sox and Patriots showed again why Boston is, Boston Strong!